
By David Wasserman
In
the wake of President Donald Trump's tweets suggesting several nonwhite
progressive congresswomen "go back" to their countries — three of them
were born in the U.S. — it's tempting for Democrats to believe the
comments will backfire with an increasingly diverse electorate and
seriously damage his re-election prospects.
But
the cold reality for Democrats? The bulk of the nation's demographic
transformation is taking place in states that matter the least in
deciding the Electoral College.
Democrats' worst nightmare
came true in November 2016 when Hillary Clinton captured 2.9 million
more votes than Donald Trump but he still comfortably prevailed in the
Electoral College, 306 to 232. As much as they would like to purge that
outcome from memory, Democrats would be unwise to write it off as a
fluke: In 2020, it's possible Trump could win 5 million fewer votes than
his opponent — and still win a second term.
The nation's two most populous states, California and Texas, are at the heart of Democrats' geography problem.
Both
behemoths are growing more diverse at a much faster rate than the
nation — owing to booming Asian and Latino populations — and are
trending toward Democrats. Yet neither blue California nor red Texas
would play a pivotal role in a close 2020 election, potentially
rendering millions of additional Democratic votes useless.
Over
the past four years for which census estimates are available,
California's population of nonwhite voting-age citizens has exploded by
1,585,499, while its number of white voting-age citizens has declined by
a net 162,715. The Golden State's GOP is in free fall: In May 2018, the
state's Republican registrants fell to third place
behind "no party preference" voters for the first time. In 2016,
Clinton stretched Barack Obama's 2012 margin from 3 million to 4.2
million votes. But padding that margin by another 1.2 million votes
wouldn't yield the 2020 Democratic nominee a single additional Electoral
vote.
Over the same time period, Texas has
added a net 1,188,514 nonwhite voting-age citizens and just 200,002
white voting-age citizens. Texas' economic boom
has attracted a diverse, highly professional workforce to burgeoning
urban centers of Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio and shifted the
state's politics leftward — especially as GOP votes have begun to "max
out" in stagnant rural areas. In 2016, Clinton cut Obama's 2012 deficit
from 1.2 million to just over 800,000. But again, even cutting Trump's
margin by 800,000 wouldn't yield the 2020 Democratic nominee a single
additional Electoral vote.
Democrats'
potential inefficiencies aren't limited to California and Texas: The
list of the nation's top 15 fastest-diversifying states also includes
the sizable yet safely blue states of New York, New Jersey,
Massachusetts, Maryland, Washington and Oregon.
Meanwhile,
demographic transformation isn't nearly as rapid in the narrow band of
states that are best-positioned to decide the Electoral College — a
factor that seriously aids Trump.
In 2016,
Trump's victory hinged on three Great Lakes states he won by less than a
point: Michigan (0.2 percent), Pennsylvania (0.7 percent) and Wisconsin
(0.8 percent). All three of these aging, relatively white states have
some of the nation's highest shares of white voters without college
degrees — a group trending away from Democrats over the long term. And
the nonwhite share of the eligible electorate in each of the three has
increased at only a quarter to a half of the rate it has surged in
California, Texas and Nevada.
Democrats
eagerly point out that they swept Senate and governors' races in
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2018. And they flipped two seats
in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania on their way to taking back the
House.
But Trump could lose Michigan and
Pennsylvania and still win the Electoral College, so long as he carries
every other place he won in 2016. And Wisconsin didn't provide as clear a
verdict in 2018. Even with favorable turnout in a "blue wave,"
Democrats won Wisconsin's governor's race only by a point and failed to
gain a House seat. If enough Trump voters who sat out 2018 —
particularly white working-class men — return to the polls in 2020, the
Badger State could easily stay red.
There
are three other states Trump carried by fewer than five points in 2016
that could play a decisive role in 2020: Arizona (3.5 percent), Florida
(1.2 percent) and North Carolina (3.7 percent).
Of the "Sun Belt" trio, Florida was the closest in 2016 yet remains one of Democrats' biggest frustrations.
Over
the past four years of census data, it had the nation's eighth sharpest
increase in the nonwhite share of voting-age citizens. But the Sunshine
State's trend lines favor Trump: The rapid influx of conservative
Midwestern retirees to the Panhandle and Gulf Coast, along with
Florida's above-average Hispanic support for GOP candidates, explain why Sen. Rick Scott and Gov. Ron DeSantis, both Republicans, defied the "blue wave" in 2018.
Democrats'
strongest Sun Belt pickup opportunity in 2020 may actually be Arizona.
Its electorate isn't very rural and its share of nonwhite voting-age
citizens is growing at the third-fastest rate in the country, behind
only Nevada and California.
Unlike in
Florida, where Democrats lost a Senate seat, Arizona Democrats picked up
a Senate seat in 2018. And North Carolina looks likely to remain
competitive as the Research Triangle, Charlotte and the Piedmont Triad
continue to attract young, left-leaning professionals.
Together,
these six states — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are best-positioned to decide which
candidate reaches the magic 270 Electoral votes. That's not to say that
other states won't be close: It's possible Trump could win Maine,
Minnesota, Nevada or New Hampshire, and it's possible the Democratic
nominee could win Georgia, Iowa, Ohio or Texas. But if either scenario
materializes, the election will be a blowout and the victor will likely
have already won the "swing six" comfortably.
Bottom line: Mired at an approval rating in the low 40s,
Trump has a narrow path to re-election. But the concentration of
demographic change in noncompetitive states, particularly California and
Texas, threatens to further widen the chasm between the popular vote
and the Electoral College, easing his path. Trump could once again win
with less than 47 percent, a victory threshold far below the share of
the popular vote the Democratic nominee might need.
The
ultimate nightmare scenario for Democrats might look something like
this: Trump loses the popular vote by more than 5 million ballots, and
the Democratic nominee converts Michigan and Pennsylvania back to blue.
But Trump wins re-election by two Electoral votes by barely hanging onto
Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Maine's 2nd
Congressional District — one of the whitest and least college-educated
districts in the country.
A scenario that divergent isn't especially likely, but after 2016, Democrats shouldn't discount it either.
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